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  • GermanWings 9525

    WOW!!! I assume everyone at this point has heard/seen the latest news conference from the prosecutor. To make such a strong statement so early in the investigation is either very irresponsible or what was heard on the cokcpit voice recorder was quite clear and damning. The details they describe apparently indicate mass murder.

  • #2
    I don't believe this is the last word on this case.
    ALL the previous major case where a Pilot has been accused of deliberately causing a crash has been unproven and I don't think ANYTHING is proven here.

    Comment


    • pilotdane
      pilotdane commented
      Editing a comment
      No accident investigation is 100% certain whether it be from mechanical failure or human action and quite often a whole series of events. A probable cause is determined to the best of the investigators abilities. Where a pilot or crew member is believed to be the probable cause. That's it. They are the most likely cause given the evidence available. Some cultures and groups find some actions tabu and therefore tend to discount conclusions offensive to them.

      The NTSB is one of the most experienced investigating agencies of aviation accidents. They have found US pilots, US maintenance crews, US airline management, US training regimes and US manufactured equipment as the likely cause of many accidents so they have shown no tendency to shift the blame for nationalistic reasons. Quite often they have even listed US government agencies as contributing to accidents. So, I have to accept their findings as some of the most credible on the planet. You will have a difficult task convincing me that Indonesian, Egyptian or South African... investigating agencies are more capable and unbiased than the NTSB.

      ---
      In Egyptair 990 the US NTSB investigators believe the flight crew to be the most likely cause and wanted to declare it a criminal investigation. The Egyptian investigators contested this conclusion and blame a failure of the elevator control unit. Who's right? We will never know for certain. But which investigating agency has the most experience and a history of unbiased results? Which culture has a deep bias against suicide?

      International investigators including the NTSB believe Silk Air 185 most probable cause was pilot action. The local governments discounted the probable cause because there was "no conclusive proof". They are correct. There is no conclusive proof but pilot action was the most likely cause.

      The most likely probably cause among experts for Malaysia 370 is crew action. This is probably the most speculative of the bunch as there is so little evidence at this time. But when you study what might cause MA370 to behave the way it did crew action is the most probable. Yes there are other possibilities but they are not the most likely given the current evidence.

      GermanWings 9525... The very public announcement so early is reckless and damaging to the investigation. Yes, the evidence at this very early stage may point to the copilot but there has been no study of other possible explanations and no chance for detailed review of the evidence. It's nothing but a snap conclusion by officials wanting to feed the media. I can only hope the investigators work quietly in the background to come to their own conclusion based on the evidence.

  • #3
    It is certainly unusual that they seem to have come to a conclusion so early on. If I heard aright they are so sure about it that they are not waiting for the second black box evidence.
    It is an extremely difficult thing to prove, given that no-one was left alive (apparently) and no external witnesses who might have shed a little light on what went on. Unproven, maybe, but that does not mean that conjectures have been incorrect, merely unproven. Short of an announcement by the co-pilot that he was deliberately crashing the plane it will probably remain so.
    Ivy

    "To thine own self be true.......
    Thou canst not then be false to any man."

    Comment


    • #4
      At least they look like changing their operation rules - NEVER leave one pilot alone while in flight, which is in place in some other airlines, apparently. It does put a different focus on the Malaysian plane incident ver the Indian Ocean, perhaps.

      I heard in the news that the young co-pilot had to stop during the first year fof training or an unspecified length of time due to a depressive episode. It was reported that he then underwent psych testing and all was OK. But that does not indicate any certainty - a person's cognitive state can change quite rapidly in either direction depending on circumstances...
      Last edited by nari; March 26th, 2015, 22:57.

      Comment


      • #5
        No accident investigation is 100% certain whether it be from mechanical failure or human action and quite often a whole series of events. A probable cause is determined to the best of the investigators abilities. Where a pilot or crew member is believed to be the probable cause. That's it. They are the most likely cause given the evidence available. Some cultures and groups find some actions tabu and therefore tend to discount conclusions offensive to them.
        Yes, I agree that there is no 100% certainty, unless they can find conclusive mechanical faults, and even then there is most likely a human factor involved. But it appears to me that there is a too quick and easy way out to blame the Pilot(s) when nothing conclusive can be found, although there are ALWAY other possibilities. The aircraft manufacturers and airlines would obviously prefer that to design or manufacturing faults, or lack of maintenance.
        I'm not saying that is the case here, but the conclusion of a investigative judge should not be taken as gospel. Wait for the experts, incl. NTSB, to examine the evidence first.

        The most likely probably cause among experts for Malaysia 370 is crew action. This is probably the most speculative of the bunch as there is so little evidence at this time. But when you study what might cause MA370 to behave the way it did crew action is the most probable. Yes there are other possibilities but they are not the most likely given the current evidence.
        I totally disagree. There is no evidence what so ever that the pilots were involved. The evidence that the plane did any turns and twists, after the initial one to return to an airport, is based on unreliable Malaysia military radar observations that is highly suspect, since it took them several days to find a suitable track in their records and identify it as MH 370.
        When that target disappeared under radar horizon it was flying NW and heading for India, where the tracking was taken over by Inmarsat, based on unproven technology.
        Since the plane did not appear to have entered Indian airspace and kept on flying for 7 hours, the "track" is making an abrupt turn to fly SSE and keep in flying in an "arch", until it run out of fuel somewhere in the Southern Indian Ocean. If the Pilot(s) were suicidal, why fly for 7 hours before ditching in the ocean, or find a suitable mountain to fly into??
        Is this more believable then that the Pilots made the turn to returned to the nearest airport in Malaysia, but passed out and the plane kept on flying on autopilot until it run out of fuel, somewhere over the Southern Indian Ocean (if they were heading for KLIA) or the Northern Indian Ocean near Somalia (if they were heading for Penang)????
        It would have been "convenient" for everybody to conclude with Pilot suicide, but even Malaysia Airlines has discarded that as a possible cause.

        Comment


        • #6
          It seems that this time there is evidence, if reports are correct, that the co-pilot of GermanWings 9525 not only had a history of depression but had actually been given a "sick note" to say he was not fit for work the very day of the tragedy. BBC say that according to the German prosecutor remains of several sick notes were found, having been torn up, none having been submitted to the airline.
          What remains very difficult to understand is that this young man was so deeply suicidal that he chose to kill so many other innocent people as well as himself.
          Ivy

          "To thine own self be true.......
          Thou canst not then be false to any man."

          Comment


          • nari
            nari commented
            Editing a comment
            Depression can take various forms, and I suspect at the time he boarded the plane, he may have been quite elated at the thought of a dramatic demise...a depressed person does not consider effects of his action on others.
            This I have learnt from working alongside psychologists for some years in hospitals. But why???? was the company not told?????
            In this case privacy has to be irrelevant, surely.

        • #7
          OK I have to admit that my cynicism appears to have been proven wrong this time and the media and investigating judge was right.

          But I'm not giving in without a last kick; where did he get the idea from to perform this dastardly deed??
          Could it be that all the media speculations about Pilot suicide as cause of earlier air disasters could have planted the seed??

          OK,OK I know, I'm an old cynic and not a fan of the media and the way they speculate and imply when they don't know (or want to know) the facts.

          Maybe that is why I have taken to watch Aljezzera, RT and CCTV9 when what is reported in western media doesn't sound entirely true, or even logical. (No, not only on Fox News)

          Comment


          • #8
            I agree that the media gets carried away and there is a suspicion that they include some personal opinions, sometimes.
            The question remains with no answer: why kill 147 people as well?

            Comment


            • #9
              Depression can take various forms, and I suspect at the time he boarded the plane, he may have been quite elated at the thought of a dramatic demise...a depressed person does not consider effects of his action on others.
              I think you have answered yourself, Nari, in that comment.
              I heard one report saying that according to his girlfriend he had once implied that he'd like to go out in such a way that all the world would take notiice of him. (My words, not hers). He has succeeded.
              Ivy

              "To thine own self be true.......
              Thou canst not then be false to any man."

              Comment


              • #10
                English translation of the preliminary report of the French Civil Aviation Safety Investigation Authority:
                http://www.bea.aero/docspa/2015/d-px...x150324.en.pdf

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