Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Malaysian Airlines flight MH370

Collapse
X
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Malaysian Airlines flight MH370

    The disappearance of Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 is just simply so shocking and tragic...

    But what makes it so particularly tragic....?

    First of all, one of the safest airlines in the world, second one of the safest aircrafts in the world, thirdly, how could two passengers get on board with stolen passports.... and finally, where is the plane?

    I certainly feel at loss for words for all those affected in some way about this disaster.

    Terrorism...?

    Scary thought....
    With best regards from Jan-Olav Storli

    Administrator and Owner of CaptainsVoyage.
    Main page: http://www.captainsvoyage.com
    Old forum: http://captainsvoyage.7.forumer.com/
    Join us: Save the "Kong Olav" on facebook

    Surround yourself with positive, ethical people who are committed to excellence.


  • #2
    Very surprising that nothing has been found to identify the crash site, or even narrowing down the area where debris may have fallen.

    In this general area there are a number of oil and gas fields, both in Malaysian, Thai and Vietnamese EEZ. There are also usually numerous fishing boats and other vessels traversing the southern part of Gulf of Thailand and the South China Sea, between the Malayan Peninsula and the coast of Cambodia/Vietnam.

    Heavy air traffic is also present in the area and radars (both military and civilian) on both sides is constantly monitoring and recording any air traffic, incl. this flight.
    The report that the plane MAY have turned back comes from just such observations, although how a plane can "disappear from radar" and still fly is a mystery.

    If the Pilot had turned around due to technical problems, or for any other reason, he would have reported that to ground control and the problem would have been identified and transmitted automatically to MAS's technical staff at KLIA. Even if all radio equipment and the ID system was disabled, the plane would still appear on radar screens.

    How can it be that nobody has reported seeing a plane falling from the sky, or blowing up in mid air, some 10-11000 m. above sea level? It was a clear night.

    If the last, the debris field would be very large, but nothing has been found. Aviation fuel would most likely be spread very thin, or have evaporated, so no surprise that no noticeable oil slick has been found.

    If, however, the plane came down in more or less one piece, there should be some fuel and/or debris on the surface to indicate the crash site.
    The debris may be mostly on the seabed, but some buoyant parts would likely float up.

    Water depth in the area is only 50 -80 m. and the bottom is fairly flat throughout. (I know the area, I have moved rigs there for years, on all sides of the EEZ boarders and in the disputed zones)

    The question raised by many about why they don't pick up signals from the so called "black box", that is not surprising. The acoustic signals only have a short range (One or two Km) and, since nobody know even approximately where to listen, it is very unlikely that vessels equipped to pick up the signals should just change upon the site, without finding debris, or oil slick, first.

    Now it is three days since the plane disappeared, with a large fleet of ships and air crafts with sophisticated SAR equipment in the area, yet nothing concrete has been found.

    Hoping beyond hope, but the likelihood of the plane being found intact and floating on the water somewhere, or having crash landed on dry land and partly intact, is just pipe dreams.

    Condolences to the family of the passengers and crew on flight MH 370 is now appropriate.

    Comment


    • #3
      Early on I heard on BBC that two large oil slicks were sighted, but they do not seem to have been mentioned since. And with the radar it was said that most radar stations would be operating from quite a distance so that the stricken plane could have slipped below their beams even though still flying for a while. But from the amount of traffic always in the area as you described it is a mystery that nothing was seen.
      Ivy

      "To thine own self be true.......
      Thou canst not then be false to any man."

      Comment


      • ombugge
        ombugge commented
        Editing a comment
        The first so called Oil slick shown looked more like it may be pollen blown out to sea. (A not infrequent sight in these waters)
        The last slick shown is too dark to be from Jet Fuel 3, which is used by this type of air crafts. (Test apparently proved so).

    • #4
      This is getting stranger for every day....

      Just watched the press conference from Malaysia, and nothing has so far been found, and the oil did not come from an airliner.

      They are currently investigating reports of wreckage at sea outside Saigon now.

      But if the plane did go down, howcome the black box haven't started sending out it's localization-ping's?


      With best regards from Jan-Olav Storli

      Administrator and Owner of CaptainsVoyage.
      Main page: http://www.captainsvoyage.com
      Old forum: http://captainsvoyage.7.forumer.com/
      Join us: Save the "Kong Olav" on facebook

      Surround yourself with positive, ethical people who are committed to excellence.

      Comment


      • ombugge
        ombugge commented
        Editing a comment
        It is probably doing just that, but nobody with a hydrophone in the water is close enough to hear it.
        This is acoustic signals with a very limited range. (1-2 Km).
        There should also be an EPIRB, which would float up and transmit it's position to a satellite and back to the nearest SAR center.
        The plane MUST have gone down. They had 7-8 hours of fuel on board.

    • #5
      What are the chances a hijacking has been done, and that the aircraft flown to an unspecified location?

      Sounds pretty wild I guess.... it's a huge piece of aircraft as well.
      With best regards from Jan-Olav Storli

      Administrator and Owner of CaptainsVoyage.
      Main page: http://www.captainsvoyage.com
      Old forum: http://captainsvoyage.7.forumer.com/
      Join us: Save the "Kong Olav" on facebook

      Surround yourself with positive, ethical people who are committed to excellence.

      Comment


      • ombugge
        ombugge commented
        Editing a comment
        NiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiL

    • #6
      I just can't fathom that a big thing like a triple-7 have completely vanished.

      US spy-satellites also denounced a mid-air explosion, stating that it would be impossible not to detect with their equipment, it was stated in media.
      With best regards from Jan-Olav Storli

      Administrator and Owner of CaptainsVoyage.
      Main page: http://www.captainsvoyage.com
      Old forum: http://captainsvoyage.7.forumer.com/
      Join us: Save the "Kong Olav" on facebook

      Surround yourself with positive, ethical people who are committed to excellence.

      Comment


      • #7
        Now it is becoming a bit ridiculous.

        After 5 days there is no sign of where, how or why this plane crashed. That is longer than it took to find the crash site of the Air France plane in the middle of the Atlantic. This is heavily trafficked waters and air space, not a remote part of an empty ocean.

        There have been statements from the Malaysian authorities that the plane MAY have turned back, or at least tried to turn back.
        The latest is military radar MAY have tracked the plane making a drastic turn just after passing Kota Baru and headed West across the peninsula at a lower than normal altitude.

        It is now said to have been lost off radar somewhere in the Andaman Sea, while it was previously reported to be lost 120 n.miles off the Vietnamese coast.
        How can it take nearly 5 days to determine in which direction the plane was flying and when/where it disappeared off military and civilian actual radar screens?
        The two positions now given is more than 300 n.m. apart, which would be nearly 45 min. flying time at normal speed of around 450 Kts.(more at low altitude)

        To get there the plane would have to pass over the border area between Malaysia and Thailand and close to several fairly large airports, (Alor Star, Penang , Langkawi, Hatiay, or even Phuket)
        That the plan could do this undetected by any civilian radars, or not be seen from the ground if flying low, is un-comprehensive.
        If military radar detected an unknown aircraft flying a unannounced route over a sensitive border area, but without setting off immediate alarms, is also un-comprehensive.

        Could it be that the early report of the plane disappearing off "radar" was not actually a radar, but a publicly available tracking system, popularly known as "flight radar"??
        The difference being that one is sending out electromagnetic pulses and picking up the echo, while the other is depending on position signals transmitted from the plane.
        The last can be switched off, or lost from a massive electrical fault on board. It can also be programmed to give dead reckoning positions, base on the planned route.

        It will be very interesting to see who gets blamed for mismanaging this SAR operation when it is all over.




        Comment


        • #8
          Well, some things are becoming clearer and some is getting even muddier.

          It has be clarified that the "Radar" they have been talking about is actually the tracking system, which I already suspected. (The plot is available on Flightradar24.com)

          The military radar, which is an actual radar, is intended to watch for any military intrusion into Malaysia air space, not to track civilian flights.
          They MAY have picked up and plotted this flight turning "back", but than again, they may have been plotting another plane.(???)
          It was flying in a westerly direction and was plotted at a course of 292 degr., which is nowhere near the course it would take, if flying back to KLIA from the last known position. (Approx. 205 degr.)

          This plane flew across the Malayan Peninsula and disappeared from Military radar "somewhere in the Malacca Strait, or maybe over the Andaman Sea, to the west of Phuket".
          If the military were plotting this plane in real time, or been able to reconstruct a plot from saved data, the position given when it "disappeared off radar" should be actual and not guess work.

          How a Military Radar Observer could fail to notice and identify a plane flying in his area of operation, is beyond me. After all, all commercial flight issue ID that is visible on radar to avoid being shot out of the sky by some overzealous fighter pilot. If this one didn't, the Radar Observer should get suspicious and start to investigate.

          Most likely this was another plane, heading for India, or point beyond and disappeared off radar because it was out of radar range, at whatever altitude it was flying. (The earth is round, after all)
          Anybody with a "professional" account with Flightradar.24 should be able to back track to the date and time in question and check if any commercial airliner was flying on that route at the time.

          The time it disappeared from the tracking system has been given as 0130 hrs. local Malaysian time by most sources, while the Military report it to disappear at 0240 hrs. L/T, which is probably when it disappeared off their radar, somewhere to the west of the peninsula.

          The press does not make things any clearer by confusing the few details that is available. Plots are shown on the screen that does not bear resemblance to the text they read. Terms used are arbitrary and sometimes totally wrong.

          Some "expert" BBC interviewed said that the "Black Boxes" transmit signals that can be detected up to 100 miles away. That may be so if we are talking radio signals, but this plane is likely under water and the signals are acoustic, which is short ranged. Why there is noting like the EPIRB, (fitted on all ship) I don't understand. It would float up and send position and ID signal to satellites, which is then transmitted to shore based SAR centers around the world.

          SkyNews mentioned that the water depth in the area is relatively shallow "therefor it is difficult to spot any wreckage on the seabed from the air".
          No, it is the other way around. It is impossible to spot something at greater depths, but if the water depth is 20-30 m. (and the water not muddy), it may be possible to spot large pieces of wreckage, even by satellites. (China has 10 of them looking)

          The debris seen by a satellite floating in the sea just south of the southern tip of Vietnam on Sunday, may or may not be from this plane. Even if it is found and confirmed to be so, it is not likely that the wreckage is anywhere near that location, but at least the likely position can be calculated backwards from the time of disappearance.
          (Luckily it is still blowing a fairly steady NE Monsoon and the surface current in the area is well known)

          This is rapidly becoming a real mystery and an embarrassment for Malaysia, deserved or not.

          Comment


          • ombugge
            ombugge commented
            Editing a comment
            SkyNews has now changed their report to: "it will be easier to find the black boxes in shallow water", which is just common sense.
            With modern ROVs available, working in 3-4,000 meters is also possible, so even deep water is not a problem, once you know where to deploy your ROVs. Singapore Navy have had their Submarine Rescue Vessel with both diver and ROVs on board in the search area since the beginning.

            I found this article on Straits Times web site in relations to an alternative Black Box and or wreckage locator: http://www.straitstimes.com/the-big-...ack-box-altern

          • ombugge
            ombugge commented
            Editing a comment
            Here is another article on Straits Times web site: http://www.straitstimes.com/the-big-...viral-20140312
            This theory has also been offered by an experienced Pilot, only that pilots managed to turn the plane around partly, before passing out from lack of oxygen, hence ending up somewhere in the Indian Ocean before running out of fuel. This is consistent with the military plotting a plane heading WSW, until it disappeared off radar, but not ditching, just because it went below radar horizon. (Radar waves are linear)

            If this is the reality, the search area must be widened to about 3000 n.miles NNE and WSW of the last known position.

        • #9
          Having watched the daily News Conference I'm even more baffled by this mystery.
          They refuted any possibility of the plane having flown "for several hours" after the last reported position. Why then speculate that it could be somewhere in the Andaman Sea???

          It was confirmed that the last automatic data transmission received by Rolls-Royce and Boeing was at 0107 hrs. (sent automatically every 1/2 hr. while in flight)
          It confirmed that all system was working normal at that time. Next transmission not received.

          Now there will be full confusion about "last transmission", which was by the pilot, when he confirmed transfer from Malaysian to Vietnamese Air Traffic Control and said "Good Night" to the Traffic Controller at Subang, which was reported to be at 0130 hrs. L/T.

          The theory that it could have blown up in mid-air is probably the most plausible, but why has no wreckage been found in the area south of Vietnam??
          This report by a New Zealender on board the Norwegian Drilling Rig "Songa Mercur", working off the coast of Vietnam is maybe the only sighting of the plane in flight:
          http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking...wn-flames-2014

          The plot is thickening and the blame game has started.

          Comment


          • #10
            From the latest information available it appears confirmed that the plane has kept on flying for many hours after the transponder failed/was switched off and after the lats automatic technical data transmission was received by Boeing and Rolls-Royce. But the automatic system has tried to make contact with the satellite(s).

            This could indicate that there has been a loss of communication and possibly a slow loss of cabin pressure due to a fault with the communication dome, as described in a Boeing warning mentioned earlier.

            The Pilots must have become aware of this, since an alarm would sound in the c0ckpit at some preset pressure level. But in stead of putting on oxygen masks and taking the plane to a lower level, he/they turned and headed back towards the nearest air port large enough to accommodate such large aircraft. (I.e. Hatyai, Penang or Phuket)
            If the pilots past out from lack of oxygen the plane would keep on flying at the last set heading and altitude, until it run out of fuel, some 5-6 hrs. later.
            (Possibly 2,250 - 2,900 n.miles from last known position, depending on fuel level remaining and ground speed)

            If this happened on a possible NW heading, it could take it towards Turkmenistan / Kazakhstan boarder, as mentioned by Najib. If so, it would be joining a number of other planes heading for Europe at that time of the night and fly over India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Turkmenistan, before getting there. Highly unlikely that it would not be detected by somebody in the air, or on the ground in that case.

            If it kept on heading in a W'ly, or WSW'ly direction, it would fly over the Northern tip of Sumatra / Ache and then kept on going over the open Indian Ocean, eventually ending up in the Southern Indian Ocean. It could maybe as far south as off the coast of Tanzania, or even south of Reunion. (Approx. equiv-distance to Turkmenistan)
            Few ships or planes in this are and no ground radar to detect it.

            The other option is that it continued on a NE'ly heading from it's last know position by the tracking system, which would take it over Vietnam, leaving the coast at Danang (the planned route) and over Taiwan. In that case it would eventually end up somewhere in the East China Sea, or the Pacific, to the south of Japan.
            This appears to be disregarded as a possibility. The likelihood that it would have been detected by other planes, or by military or civilian radar on this route is also very large.

            My guess; it will eventually be found in the near empty Indian Ocean somewhere. Although not much traffic and too large area to do a meaningful search effort, some wreckage will eventually be spotted/picked up by passing ship, fishing boats or drifting ashore somewhere.

            Comment


            • #11
              What I don't understand about this whole occurrence is the obfuscation at every report. It kept on flying for several hours after contact was lost - no, there is no evidence to support this; a Vietnamese saw a burning object in the sky, that was ignored in further reports; it disappeared from radar, no, military radar picked up signals from it - but no-one knows what plane that was; it may have been hijacked, no, not likely, and so on and so on. The whole operation stinks. And meanwhile the relatives of those on board are in torment. If hijacking was the answer they could still have hope, but as it is that is denied them in the twists and turns of the latest "information".
              Ivy

              "To thine own self be true.......
              Thou canst not then be false to any man."

              Comment


              • ombugge
                ombugge commented
                Editing a comment
                "It kept on flying for several hours after contact was lost" The latest is that even Najib accept that fact, eventually.

                "A Vietnamese saw a burning object in the sky"No it was a New Zealander on a Norwegian drilling rig working in Vietnamese waters that reported this to his company.

                " It disappeared from radar" The "radar" referred to is actually the tracking system, based on signals sent from the plans on board systems, not an actual ground based radar.

                "No, military radar picked up signals from it - but no-one knows what plane that was" That is true, but they now say they can CONFIRM that the echoes was from MH 370. (No surprise, since all commercial planes sends out ID signals that will be detected by radar)

                "It may have been hijacked, no, not likely" I agree. If it was hijacked by someone they would want to claim responsibility to gain propaganda point. (Why else high jack a plane???)

                The other conspiracy theory, that it had been taken by pirates, and had landed on some remote island somewhere, or whatever, is equally ridiculous. Where is there an air strip that can accommodate a B-777 and yet so remote that you can land a plane being searched for all over the place?
                If it was Pirates they would want ransom money for the Pax and plane. No ransom note received., so far.

                The claim that Malaysian authorities know more than they let out is equally ridiculous. Why should they?? They are being made out to be the incompetent managers of this search operation. If they know where the plane came down, why would they want to hide it?? (Typical Western attitude)

                The truth of this mystery will eventually be known, but as of now we may be day,weeks, or even months from even knowing where the wreckage is located.
                It may be in high mountains, or in deep water. In any case I'm sure it will be found eventually and the facts will be known.

                Meanwhile I stick with my theory, which is speculations but at least not a conspiracy theory.

            • #12
              So, we are presumably back on the hijacking theme. Report now is (again, I think!) that the communication systems were deliberately switched off according to the Malaysian Prime Minister. Of course, the continuing variety of other possibilities being put forward as explanation of the plane's disappearance could have been a series of false trails to make the hijackers think that they had got away with it, while secret investigations by the authorities were being carried out. Or am I being too fanciful?
              Ivy

              "To thine own self be true.......
              Thou canst not then be false to any man."

              Comment


              • #13
                I think perhaps you misunderstood my post at #11, Ombugge. The first 3 lines of that post after the initial sentence were simply samples of the media reports and denials coming in from time to time. They were not my thoughts.
                I don't know whether you saw my #12, posted 4 hours before your comment? The latest in addition to that is that they are now searching the pilot's house.
                Ivy

                "To thine own self be true.......
                Thou canst not then be false to any man."

                Comment


                • ombugge
                  ombugge commented
                  Editing a comment
                  No I did not misunderstand and did not think this was your personal views or thoughts. As you know I'm not very impressed by the level of knowledge behind most media reports, especially maritime matters, but not exclusively so.
                  I answered each point raised from that perspective.

              • #14
                I was wrong when I speculated about the fate of Stephen Faucet so I hate to comment about the fate of another mysterious flight.

                How sad is it that the best outcome might be piracy and ransom? I can only hope that the plane was landed on a stretch of road or jungle field and some group is holding them for a political purpose. Something with hope that they can be found and negotiated back to safety.

                ---
                As for where a 777 can be landed there are two different types of landings... legal and doable. A legal runway has all the navigational aids, lights, wide open space, rescue equipment and legth required for routine commercial operation. Doable is almost anywhere pretty flat, long and free of obstructions. I liked long paved runways but but my RV-6 could land and takeoff from my driveway with a lot of room left.

                Southwest Airlines flight 4013 very recently showed that a commercial aircraft can be safely landed on a runway much too small.
                Air Canada flight 143 (Gimli Glider) proved that you don't even need a runway and a dragstrip is sufficient to safely land.
                Southern Airways 242 came close and hit a gas station landing on a road and 9 survived.
                Taca flight 110 landed on a levee and everyone survived.
                There are many more but I have to throw in US Air 1549 that landed in the Hudson River and everyone survived.

                Still I fear that no ransom is a very bad sign.

                Comment


                • #15
                  It's time to admit that technical reasons are most like and that it is not likely to be a catastrophic explosion in mid-air, or any other sudden occurrence. Otherwise debris would have been found in the early search area.
                  Slow decompression and unconsciousness of the Pilots, Crew and Pax, is by far more likely than the theory that "someone with ill intent" deliberately turned off all communication system, but was not able to fully disable the automatic data system.

                  "They" than took control of the plane and landed it, or deliberately crashed it somewhere. Why?? Where??
                  Has anybody claimed responsibility, or demanded a ransom payment? NO!! Is there any indication that somebody wanted to "go out in glory" by deliberately crashing the plane and killing all on board. No indications, but now they are looking hard at the Pilots as possible suicide candidates, gambling addicts or maybe even fanatics of some sort. Not very likely.

                  If it had landed intact somewhere on dry land the "pinging" would not stop, as long as there were power available. If it crashed on land, or ditched at sea, the signals would stop on impact.

                  With the fact that the plane had about 7 hrs. of fuel on board on departure from KLIA. If it has been confirmed by actual radar plot that the plane turned around and disappeared off radar somewhere to the west of the Malayan Peninsula , it is possible to establish the time frame until it was no longer visible on actual radar plot, thus how much fuel would be on board at that time.

                  Based on the last known position, course and ground speed at that time, and assuming that the plane continued on autopilot, not under human control, it should be possible to calculate the time until fuel run out and thus establish the logical search area, whether that be in the Southern Indian Ocean, or on land somewhere.

                  Unfortunately the efforts appears now to be concentrated on finding someone to blame, rather then to find the aircraft and the "black boxes", which may answer that question, among others.

                  Comment


                  • pilotdane
                    pilotdane commented
                    Editing a comment
                    Yes, a ransom note or group claiming responsibility would have surfaced by now. It still can't stop me from hoping all alive somewhere.

                    As for the emergency location transmitter (ELT). There has been no major commercial transport accident where the ELT has located the aircraft. They have always been unreliable whether crashing on land or sea. Knock off the antenna and it's not much good.

                    I am afraid it will be brute force and searching a large area to find the plane. Even knowing the aircraft's fuel load it's fuel burn will vary quite a bit depending on altitude. It last appeared they descended to a medium altitude so I assume they stayed somewhere in the mid altitudes to limit their visibility to radar but maximize their range. Finding out those responsible and their motive may be the best clue to narrow down the search area. If something is not found in the next 20 or so days it will be very difficult to find anything. The only thing we know for sure is that the plane stopped flying about 7 hours after it took off. Unlike a ship or car, fuel is the only thing keeping an aircraft flying.
                Working...
                X